A couple years ago, I started tracking ABA job market data for a straightforward reason: something wasn’t adding up. On one hand, I kept hearing about the explosive growth in autism services and the endless demand for qualified professionals. On the other, I was having conversations with experienced therapists who were quietly planning their exit strategies from the field.
This disconnect wasn’t just an interesting puzzle—it pointed to a fundamental problem. If the professionals who deliver ABA therapy are increasingly leaving the field, what does that mean for our ability to serve children with autism effectively? And more importantly, what could be done about it?
With my background spanning healthcare technology and a family history in autism services, I found myself well-positioned to explore this question. Not from a purely academic standpoint, but from the practical perspective of someone trying to build something better.
The data I’ve gathered over the years has shaped how we operate at Bright Pathways ABA and has given me a clearer picture of where our field is headed. Here’s what the numbers show—and why I think these trends matter to anyone invested in the future of autism services.
1) A Rapidly Growing Field, But Not Without Growing Pains
Let me throw some numbers at you that still surprise me, even after looking at them for months.
Back in 2020, there were roughly 34,000 BCBA job postings across the country. Fast forward to 2024, and that number has exploded to 103,150, according to the BACB Demand Report. Think about that – a tripling of demand in just five years!
Meanwhile, the supply side has been racing to keep up. According to the BACB Certificant Data, we’ve gone from about 44,000 certified BCBAs in 2022 to 74,125 in 2024. RBT certifications have shown even more dramatic growth, jumping from around 89,000 to 196,579.
But here’s the thing – and I see this playing out in real time across multiple states where we operate: despite more professionals entering the field than ever before, we’re still understaffed in many areas. Last month, I spoke with a clinic director in Colorado who has 15 families on a waitlist simply because she can’t hire qualified staff fast enough.
This isn’t just a business headache. It creates a domino effect: overworked therapists, longer waitlists for families seeking services, and pressure to do more with less. None of that is sustainable, and unfortunately none of it serves the children we’re all trying to help.
2) Salaries Are Rising — But Not Evenly
“Follow the money,” they say in journalism. In ABA, following the salary trends reveals some encouraging developments – and some persistent challenges.
BCBA Salary Insights
The good news first: BCBAs are earning more than they were five years ago. In 2020, the average BCBA was making around $66,000. Today? That average has climbed to about $89,000, according to the latest ZipRecruiter data.
But – and this is a significant but – your mileage will vary tremendously depending on where you live. Take New Jersey, where BCBAs are earning an average of $95,532 annually. Not far behind are Massachusetts, Nevada, and California, all hovering above $90K.
Experience creates another layer of variation. I regularly talk with entry-level BCBAs making around $60K and clinical directors with 10+ years of experience commanding salaries well over $100K. Then there’s the setting factor – school-based BCBAs often have different compensation structures than those in private clinics or home-based programs.
Just last week, I spoke with a BCBA who switched from a school position to a private clinic and saw her compensation jump by almost 20%. “Same work, different setting, way different pay,” she noted with a laugh.
RBT Salary Insights
RBTs have seen meaningful gains too, though from a more modest starting point. Back in 2020, the typical RBT was earning around $36,000. That’s now increased to between $45,000-$47,500 for full-time positions.
Again, geography plays an outsized role. In Hawaii, RBTs are averaging around $54,000. But drive a few hours into some rural areas, and those numbers can drop by 30% or more.
I find it fascinating (and a bit frustrating) how widely these numbers vary based on factors that have little to do with skill or dedication. An RBT working with challenging behaviors in rural Texas may be making significantly less than someone doing similar work in suburban California – despite potentially facing the same professional demands.
3) Where the Jobs Are: Regional Demand Highlights
During a recent conference panel I listened to, someone asked where BCBAs should move if they want job security. “Anywhere,” they joked – but the regional variations are worth understanding.
BCBA Hotspots
California continues to be the undisputed heavyweight champion of BCBA demand, accounting for 19% of all national job postings in 2024 according to the BACB Demand Report. That’s nearly one in five BCBA jobs nationwide concentrated in a single state!
The other states leading the pack include Massachusetts, Texas, Florida, and New Jersey. Each market has its own quirks – Massachusetts with its strong early intervention infrastructure, Texas with its rapidly growing population, Florida’s unique insurance landscape, and New Jersey’s long history of strong autism advocacy.
I spent time speaking to clinicians across these states in February, and the consistent theme was growth – sometimes planned, sometimes chaotic, but always rapid.
RBT Demand Growth
Texas and Florida deserve special mention for RBT growth. Three major factors are driving this surge:
First, both states are experiencing significant population growth, particularly among families with young children. Second, Medicaid expansion (though implemented differently in each state) has increased access to services. And third, there’s been increased funding specifically for in-home ABA services.
A clinic owner in Austin told me recently, “I could hire 20 RBTs tomorrow if qualified candidates walked through the door.” That sentiment was echoed by nearly everyone I spoke with across both states.
4) What Therapists Are Saying: Satisfaction, Burnout, and Change
Numbers and trends matter, but they don’t tell the whole story. What I find more compelling – and concerning – are the firsthand accounts from therapists in the trenches.
I’ve spent countless hours on Reddit forums, in Facebook groups, and having one-on-one conversations with BCBAs and RBTs across the country. The burnout rates are alarming and seem to be increasing each year. Many describe a field they love paired with working conditions they can barely tolerate.
“I have 22 direct clients right now,” a BCBA in Phoenix told me. “I’m supposed to provide quality supervision and treatment planning, but I’m just treading water.” That’s not an unusual story.
The high demand for services has created a pressure cooker. Therapists report overloaded caseloads and insufficient time for proper planning or supervision. One RBT described it as “always feeling one step behind, no matter how early I arrive or how late I stay.”
But there are bright spots emerging. Some therapists are finding better balance with hybrid or telehealth models. I spoke with a BCBA in rural Colorado who shifted to a 60/40 telehealth/in-person model and described it as “career-saving.” She’s able to provide more consistent supervision without spending hours driving between locations.
Agencies are getting more creative with retention strategies too. Tuition reimbursement, sign-on bonuses, and paid supervision hours are becoming more common. One innovative practice in Florida even implemented a sabbatical program, offering BCBAs a paid month off after every three years of service.
Are these changes enough? Honestly, I don’t think so. They’re positive steps, but they address symptoms rather than root causes of therapist dissatisfaction. We need structural changes in how we think about therapist workloads, administrative demands, and professional development.
5) Looking Forward: What the Next 5 Years Might Bring
My background in healthcare innovation taught me to be careful with predictions, but here’s what the data suggests about our future:
BCBA job growth will likely continue its impressive trajectory, projected at 20-22% per decade according to multiple industry analyses. That’s substantially faster than most other professional fields.
RBT demand shows no signs of slowing as long as autism diagnosis rates maintain their current pattern. With the CDC’s latest findings showing 1 in 31 U.S. children identified with autism spectrum disorder (as of 2025), the fundamental need for qualified RBTs remains strong.
Policy shifts are reshaping our landscape too. Medicaid expansion and increased telehealth reimbursement are changing not just where therapy happens, but who can access it. I recently met with a family in a remote part of Arizona who’s receiving services for the first time because of these changes.
Perhaps most intriguing to me is the emergence of supportive technology. At Bright Pathways, we’re exploring how AI tools and digital platforms can reduce administrative burdens without replacing the irreplaceable human connection at the heart of therapy. I’m convinced these tools will be part of the solution – if we deploy them thoughtfully, with therapist wellbeing as a primary consideration.
Final Thoughts: Building a Healthier Future for ABA Professionals
I started this deep dive into market trends because I believe in data-informed decision making. But I continue it because of the stories behind the numbers – the dedicated professionals who make this field what it is.
I once spoke with an RBT who’s been with the same client for three years, celebrating incremental progress and building a relationship of trust that’s transformed both their lives. That’s the heart of what we do. And it’s why creating sustainable, fulfilling career paths in ABA therapy isn’t just a nice-to-have – it’s essential to our mission.
At Bright Pathways ABA, we’re approaching this challenge by fundamentally rethinking the therapist experience. We’ve implemented things like our Therapist Voice Initiative, where therapists propose, vote on, and help implement new policies and processes. We’ve set up a Workload Buffer System with contractual caseload limits to prevent burnout. And we’re investing in our Innovation Lab Program that gives therapists time and resources to experiment with new methodologies.
Are these perfect solutions? Not even close. We’re learning and adapting every day. But they stem from a conviction that the future of ABA therapy must be built around the wellbeing and voice of therapists – not just client growth or revenue targets.
I believe our field needs greater transparency in salaries, career paths, and workload expectations. Therapists deserve to know what they can expect and how they can grow. They deserve agencies that see them as partners in a mission, not just entries on a staffing sheet.
My hope in sharing these trends and reflections is to spark conversations about where we’re headed. Because ultimately, the future of our field won’t be determined by market forces alone, but by whether we can create environments where passionate professionals want to build careers – not just fill positions.
If you’ve read this far, chances are you care deeply about the future of ABA therapy. I’d love to hear your thoughts, experiences, or questions. The path forward isn’t something any one person or organization can map alone. It’s a journey we’re on together, and every voice matters in shaping where we go next.
Moshe Coleman is the founder of Bright Pathways ABA, a therapy provider reimagining autism therapy through a therapist-first approach. After years developing neurorecovery technologies, he’s now focused on creating sustainable, fulfilling Autism care solutions.
